Strategic decision-making basis for Stegra's investment in fossil-free steel
For Stegra's large-scale investment in the production of fossil-free steel in Boden, it is crucial to have an updated picture and understanding of developments in electricity prices and electricity energy supply. To secure the basis for decision-making, an updated analysis of the energy balance in the electricity price areas SE1 and SE2 up to 2040 was needed, with a particular focus on how delayed industrial investments and changed conditions for wind power expansion affect price developments.
In-depth analysis of energy balance and market developments
We conducted an in-depth analysis of the dynamic situation in electricity energy supply and market development in northern Sweden by mapping and assessing the maturity of major planned industrial projects and power generation facilities. Particular focus was placed on identifying trend breaks in the rate of expansion of both consumption and production and how this affects long-term price formation.
The analysis was based on extensive data collection from market participants, authorities and industry organisations, combined with our experience in power system analysis and industrial transformation. By compiling information on delayed industrial projects, cancelled wind power investments and planned grid expansions, we were able to create a nuanced picture of the development of the energy balance and provide a sound basis for decision-making.
Support for strategic decision-making
The deliverable consisted of a strategic analysis highlighting:
- Updated status of major industrial investments in the SE1 and SE2 electricity price areas, with a focus on changing schedules and volumes.
- Mapping and maturity assessment of planned power generation, with a particular focus on onshore and offshore wind power.
- Analysing the development of the transmission network and its impact on regional price differences.
- Scenario-based price development forecasts with substantiated reasoning on timing of commissioning of production and consumption.
The delivery of the results provided Stegra with solid insights into how the energy balance in northern Sweden is likely to evolve in the coming years and how this in turn may affect electricity prices in different scenarios. By combining deep industry knowledge with data-driven analyses, we at Sigholm were able to contribute to Stegra's strategic positioning in the ongoing industrial transition. Our work thus supports the development of a more sustainable and competitive business community in northern Sweden.
The project is one of many examples of how we at Sigholm contribute to the industry's green transition by delivering strategic decision-making data based on solid analyses and market knowledge. By understanding and quantifying complex relationships in industrial development, power system expansion and market dynamics, we help our clients make informed decisions in a changing energy market.
