For hydrogen production using an electrolyser, flexibility is a crucial business advantage. It is therefore rarely sufficient to base investment decisions on annual or monthly average prices, since electricity costs are shaped in practice by hour-by-hour volatility and depend on how the facility can start, stop and ramp within its technical limits. Once the operating profile is clearly defined and linked to hourly data, it becomes possible to assess how effectively the facility’s flexibility can be used in response to future price fluctuations.
How Sigholm conducts the analysis
As part of the assignment, Sigholm prepares a tailored estimate of the facility’s realised electricity price and the value of its flexibility. Sigholm draws on its long-term forecast and ongoing analyses of price formation and volatility, matching these with the facility’s technical conditions and planned operating strategy. The analysis is based on simulated hourly data series, which Sigholm models according to how the facility can reduce or increase its consumption in different price situations, as well as how ramping, minimum and maximum load, and any buffers affect the ability to operate across daily and seasonal cycles.
A transparent basis for decision-making
What makes this approach useful is that it bridges market dynamics and technical constraints in a transparent way. Assumptions and calculation logic are clearly presented, allowing the results to be reviewed, adjusted and used in internal and external discussions. Together with a review of the results, the customer receives a concrete basis for decision-making: understanding cost drivers, evaluating operating strategies and making decisions that account for both volatility and the facility’s flexibility.
